Sunday, February 27, 2011

Oscar Hopes And Predictions

Another year in movies, another celebration. It's hard to believe that just a year ago today we bestowed the Best Picture award to The Hurt Locker; maybe not the best film of the year, but deserving nonetheless. If The Hurt Locker was released in 2010 rather than 2009, it would not stand a chance against this year's slate of Oscar nominated films. Sure, it might be nominated (although I wouldn't guarantee it), but in no way would it pose a threat in this year's ceremony. In my mind, 2010 was a banner year for film, falling short of only the phenomenal 2007 year for best of the last decade. Indeed, we were treated to inventive and well-executed movies made by some of Hollywood's most talented minds. And now, these minds must be rewarded for their filmmaking excellence. Hence, the Oscars.
Up until last year, I put great stock into the Academy Awards, placing it on a pedestal that immortalized films for time immemorial. However, after two of the best writers working today (Tarantino and Reitman) caught the almighty shaft from the Academy when both of their vastly superior scripts failed to win their respective categories, I had an epiphany. The Oscars don't matter. Sure, the ceremony is a holy gathering of sorts, and the nominations are generally indicative of the best films of the year. But the actual awards - they're useless, based purely on the opinions of a select group of people whose opinions are no better than our own.
While rooting on his Lakers this morning, Joseph Gordon-Levitt tweeted, "Movies are not a competition. Basketball is." I could not have put it more succinctly. Movies impact people in vastly different ways. People leave in tears, in misery, in elation, in horror. It's not a crime that someone didn't come away floored by Inception like you were, because that very same person might have thought The Fighter was the most visceral display of family life they've seen and reminded them so much of their own family. These preferences aren't wrong; they are right in every possible way, because they resonated within you and spoke to you in a way that no other movie could. That's why we love movies, not because they win awards.
That being said, the Oscars might be one of my favorite nights of the year and it is fun, too. The whole night is purely a celebration of movies and not often do you get to see Hollywood's most talented gathered together. In fact, you only see it once a year. It deserves every bit of attention, and of course I have to contribute with this blog. Let this be your guide for the evening: I'll be listing the nominees in each category, while italicizing what I wish would win and bolding what I think will actually win. I'll also contribute my two cents on each category. Follow along throughout the night and chime in with your own opinions in the comments section!

(Remember the italicized nominee is what I hope will win, the bold nominee is what I think will actually win. Note: I nixed the Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup, Documentary Short Subject, Costume Design, and Art Direction categories because let's face it, I don't care, you don't care, and if we are all apathetic about these categories the world would be a much simpler place.)

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

- Mike Leigh for Another Year
- Scott Silver, Paul Tamasay, and Eric Johnson for The Fighter
- Christopher Nolan for Inception
- Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg for The Kids Are All Right
- David Seidler for The King's Speech

Nolan deserves this without a doubt. The rest of the field is relatively weak comparatively, with the exception of The Fighter's script which I liked a lot. Still, In Nolan We Trust.


BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

- Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy for 127 Hours
- Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network
- Michael Arndt for Toy Story 3
- Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for True Grit
- Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini for Winter's Bone

Again, Sorkin is even more of a lock than Nolan, which is surprising because his competition is much stiffer. Sorkin wrote one of the best screenplays ever with TSN though, so this a no brainer.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

- Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb for Inception

Yes, there are other nominees but none of them hold a candle to Inception's brilliant use of practical effects instead of lazy CGI. When in doubt, award Nolan as much as possible.


SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

- Tanel Toom for The Confession
- Michael Creagh for The Crush
- Luke Matheny for God of Love
- Ivan Goldschmidt for Na Wewe
- Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite for Wish 143

I liked all of these short films besides God of Love (way to go U.S.) but the one that struck me the most was Wish 143. It was a perfect blend of humor and heart that struck me internally despite its 20 minute runtime. Na Wewe was the most unique out of the bunch so I think that will win.

SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

- Teddy Newton for Day and Night

If you saw Toy Story (you saw Toy Story, right??), then you saw this wonderful little short film beforehand. I saw none of the other nominees and I don't need to; Day and Night deserves it.

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

- "Coming Home" from Country Strong
- "I See The Light" from Tangled
- "If I Rise" from 127 Hours
- "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3

"We Belong Together" perfectly encapsulated the collective feeling from the last part of the trilogy. The Academy has some love affair with A.R. Rahman (yeah the guy who did "Jai Ho") so If I Rise will win an undeserving award.

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

- John Powell for How To Train Your Dragon
- Hans Zimmer for Inception
- Alexandre Desplat for The King's Speech
- A.R. Rahman for 127 Hours
- Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for The Social Network

If you haven't checked out The Social Network score, do so immediately (via download if you wish, or support the cause and buy it on iTunes). Call it intuition (because I have no factual basis for this pick) but I think Powell comes away the Oscar here. Stay tuned.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

- Mexico for Biutiful
- Greece for Dogtooth
- Denmark for In A Better World
- Canada for Incendies
- Algeria for Outside The Law

I haven't seen any of these, but have heard good things about both of these, so I flipped a coin. And I like Canada better than these other countries.

FILM EDITING

- Andrew Weisblum for Black Swan
- Pamela Martin for The Fighter
- Tariq Anwar for The King's Speech
- Jon Harris for 127 Hours
- Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter for The Social Network

The Social Network is so fast paced, but still so coherent that it deserves the win just for sheer stamina. Everyone with an Academy vote loves The King's Speech so that'll probably win. Still pissed Inception didn't get nominated here.....

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

- Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz for Exit through The Gift Shop

GO RENT/NETFLIX THIS MOVIE IMMEDIATELY!!!


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

- Matthew Libatique for Black Swan
- Wally Pfister for Inception
- Danny Cohen for The King's Speech
- Jeff Cronenworth for The Social Network
- Roger Deakins for True Grit

Deakins will probably win via the Lifetime achievement route. I generally think its bullshit that awards get won in this manner, but since Deakins deserved it the previous nine nominations, I'll be ok if he wins. Libatique had the best camera movement by far though. And Black Swan needs some more love.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

- How To Train Your Dragon
- The Illusionist
- Toy Story 3

If there weren't four films I thought were better than Toy Story 3 this year, then I would be rooting for it to win Best Picture. That's logical, right?

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

- Amy Adams for The Fighter
- Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech
- Melissa Leo for The Fighter
- Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit
- Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom

Supporting categories are always crowded, and this is no exception. Leo is going to win, book it, and she does an excellent job. Steinfeld, though, carries True Grit and outduels her counterpart in the original without breaking a sweat, so that's where my allegiances lie. Also, goal no. 1 for the next two weeks is to watch Animal Kingdom.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

- Christian Bale for The Fighter
- John Hawkes for Winter's Bone
- Jeremy Renner for The Town
- Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right
- Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech

Ok, before you jump all over me, I am hoping that Bale wins, too. He deserves it more than anyone in the category by far. But Hawkes was phenomenal and haunting in his role, and I love him in Eastbound and Down, so I'll be secretively rooting for him to bring home the gold statue.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

- Annette Bening for The Kids Are All Right
- Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole
- Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone
- Natalie Portman for Black Swan
- Michelle Williams for Blue Valentine

This is Portman's to lose, and I'm rooting for her. My mom liked Bening a lot though, and I value my mother's opinion, so you should too. (Also, my friend Alec loves getting shoutouts from the blog, and he liked Blue Valentine and Williams, so value his opinion as well.)

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

- Javier Bardem for Biutiful
- Jeff Bridges for True Grit
- Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network
- Colin Firth for The King's Speech
- James Franco for 127 Hours

Firth deserves it and will win. Actually, he should have won last year for his work in A Single Man, but, you know, that's not how these things work. Luckily, he gets redemption this year. Eisenberg had the most captivating performance of the year, but he'll be back eventually for his win.

Best Director

- Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
- David O. Russell for The Fighter
- Tom Hooper for The King's Speech
- David Fincher for The Social Network
- Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for True Grit

Hooper has been winning awards left and right lately, but Fincher has been winning them for the past six months. I do honestly believe he will win, even with prognosticators mostly saying differently. If I had a second-place vote, I'd go with Aronofsky, simply because Black Swan needs some more love and he might be the best living director working right now. Yeah, I said it.

BEST PICTURE

- Black Swan
- The FIghter
- Inception
- The Kids Are All Right
- The King's Speech
- 127 Hours
- The Social Network
- Toy Story 3
- True Grit
- Winter's Bone

As much as it pains me to say this, The King's Speech has too much momentum not to win Best Picture. It is a truly fascinating film, with performances better than almost any movie released this year. Outside of the performances an above average script, I found it to be a bit drab and familiar. The Social Network truly deserves this award in my mind, and it will be considered a classic for years to come. The King's Speech, for all its merits, will not.

Thanks for read and spark some lively debate in the comments!